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Upstart: Improving Fundamentals And A Still Discounted Price
The Fintech achieved a significant improvemen… The AI lending platform misinterpret… Q3 showed Upstart’s model can scale profitably, but macro and credit headlines can quickly cap loan originations and pressure guidance. In 2024, Upstart Holdings’s revenue was $676.96 million, an increase of 23.43% compared to the previous year’s $548.46 million.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 18, 2025: mixed ratings, wide price-target range
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
To buy at that price, and the ask size is the number of shares offered for sale at that price. The bid & ask refers to the price that an investor is willing to buy or sell a stock. The Auto Lending segment is involved in auto refinance and auto retail loans. The Personal Lending segment focuses on unsecured personal loans and small dollar loans. SoFi Technologies stands out as a diversified digital bank with strong revenue growth, profitability, and a robust customer ecosystem. Upstart’s AI-driven underwriting, expanding data, and rising conversion rates position it for accelerated growth as the Fed eases monetary policy.
The latest fundamentals: what Upstart reported and guided
It will be decided by whether Upstart can keep proving—quarter after quarter—that its AI underwriting can scale profitably, maintain credit performance, and stay supported by durable funding in changing economic weather. That kind of purchase often gets read as a confidence signal—especially when UPST is being debated as either a recovering growth story or a structurally volatile lender-tech hybrid. Insider trading isn’t destiny, but in a sentiment-heavy stock, it can shape narratives. The most recent full quarterly update from the company is its third-quarter 2025 report (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025). Select market data provided by ICE Data Services.
Is Upstart Stock Attractive After Recent Volatility and Lofty Valuation Multiples?
That growth was mainly fueled by the Fed’s three rate cuts throughout the year. But in 2024, Upstart originated loans grew 28% as its conversion rate (the percentage of inquiries leading to approved loans) rose 6.5 percentage points to 16.5%. Upstart doesn’t issue any of its own loans. For 2026, they expect its revenue to grow 21% to $2.62 billion as its adjusted EBITDA nearly triples.
- Its ARPAM also decreased sequentially in the second quarter and flatlined in the third quarter.
- During market hours, the real-time Cboe BZX price displays and new trade updates are updated on the page (as indicated by a “flash”).
- UPST has 97.29 million shares outstanding.
- For 2026, they expect its revenue and adjusted EBITDA to rise 22% and 42%, respectively.
- Chime’s active member base grew to 9.1 million by the end of the third quarter of 2025.
It’s merely an AI-powered middleman marketplace that approves loans for a wide range of banks, credit unions, and auto dealerships. Partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans through Upstart’s marketplace, framing the move as part of expanding innovative financial solutions and access to credit. It’s time to upgrade the stock, as recent stock price declines create an attractive entry point for growth-focused investors. Its platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit, and small dollar loans. Both of these fintech stocks seem like promising investments. Its business flourished when interest rates were low, but it stalled out in 2022 and 2023 as rising rates curbed the market’s demand for new loans.
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In the third quarter of 2025, these offerings accounted for nearly 12% of total originations and 22% of new borrowers. Over time, this framework will unlock significant improvements in its ability to monetize model wins that benefit borrowers. This operational efficiency supports scalability and enables lenders to approve more loans to borrowers, faster and often at lower interest rates.
Upstart’s three-month slide contrasts sharply with its strong third-quarter execution. Premium valuation is also justified, considering its strong xcriticalgs growth prospects and solid fundamentals. However, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS has been revised 27 cents downward to $2.65, over the same time frame. The market remains cautious about model volatility, notably the rapid tightening of approvals. Small-dollar relief loans advanced rapidly, too, with qualified borrowers now receiving funds in about 90 seconds.
These new businesses expand Upstart’s reach, reduce dependence on personal loans and provide long-term growth opportunities across the company’s markets. While personal loans remain the backbone of Upstart’s business, the company’s auto, home and small-dollar loans segments are gaining momentum. The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. This uncertainty caused a market recalibration, with investors rotating capital out of more speculative tech scammed by xcritical stocks and into more stable assets. But it also automated more of its loans, gained more lending partners, and expanded its smaller auto lending and home equity lines of credit (HELOC) segments to reach more borrowers.
However, a more conservative model pushed the conversion rate down to 20.6% from 23.9% last quarter, though still above 16.3% a year ago. Consumer demand remained robust, with loan applications jumping about 30% quarter over quarter to more than 2 million, the highest in more than three years. According to the company, its AI platform is performing as designed, adapting to evolving macro signals while delivering solid results. Upstart achieved decent progress on its plan of rapid growth, profitability and AI leadership. Let’s delve deeper into this to find out whether the stock should be a Buy, Hold or Sell.
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There are several formulas that can be used to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock. The average price target for UPST is $60.79, which is 24.30% higher than the xcritical price. UPST does not appear to pay any dividends at this time. The company has $495.71 million in cash and $1.95 billion in debt, giving a net cash position of -$1.46 billion or -$14.96 per share.
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- Investors who bought $1,000 worth of SoundHound AI’s shares at the IPO in April 2022 would now be looking at an investment worth $1,446.
- Highlights important summary options statistics to provide a forward looking indication of investors’ sentiment.
- The market remains cautious about model volatility, notably the rapid tightening of approvals.
- Upstart delivered strong Q3 results on November 4, 2025, with 80% Y/Y origination growth and a 71% Y/Y increase in revenues, driven by robust loan demand.
It generates most of its revenue by charging its lending partners referral fees, which are collected as a small percentage of each approved loan. That makes Upstart a valuable tool for approving loans for younger and lower-income borrowers with limited credit histories. Chime (CHYM 0.97%) and Upstart (UPST +0.31%) are both high-growth fintech companies that serve lower-income customers. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Highlights important summary options statistics to provide a forward looking indication of investors’ sentiment. For example, a price above its moving average is generally considered an upward trend or a buy. Unique to Barchart.com, Opinions analyzes a stock or commodity using 13 popular analytics in short-, medium- and long-term periods. When available, Bid and Ask information from the Cboe BZX Exchange is updated as new data is received.
Bottom line: Upstart stock gets a partnership pop, but the real test is repeatability
Castlelake-type announcements tend to boost confidence that the loans can keep getting funded without Upstart having to warehouse too much risk on its own balance sheet. On Nov. 6, 2025, Upstart announced a $1.5 billion forward-flow commitment from funds managed by Castlelake, L.P., with Castlelake agreeing to purchase up to $1.5B of consumer loans originated through the Upstart platform. Lender partnerships don’t help if loans can’t be funded consistently.
This sentiment fueled fears of a potential “AI bubble,” leading to a significant downturn in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index. A number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after investors grew increasingly concerned that the billions of dollars being invested into artificial intelligence may not generate sufficient profits. Leo Sun has no position in any https://xcritical.online/ of the stocks mentioned. But Chime faces more direct competitors than Upstart, its growth is decelerating, it relies heavily on consumer spending, and its stock is more richly valued. The Fed cut its benchmark rates two more times this year, and analysts expect Upstart’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA to surge 63% and 2,066% in 2025 as those tailwinds kick in.
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Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool’s premium services. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close. That makes Upstart — which has stronger growth rates, a lower valuation, and clearer near-term catalysts — the better buy. But Upstart, with an enterprise value of $5.38 billion, still looks cheaper at 16 times next year’s adjusted EBITDA. With an enterprise value of $8.35 billion, Chime looks reasonably valued at 26 times next year’s adjusted EBITDA. For 2026, they expect its revenue and adjusted EBITDA to rise 22% and 42%, respectively.